It’s Game Week. Ask, and ye shall obtain.
“There is only one God, and his name is Death Odds. And there is only one thing we say to Death Odds: ‘Today!’”
It’s troublesome to fathom that our journey collectively, a minimum of as far as the unique GoT is worried, is nearly over. Would you consider me if I informed you that a dying or two in the ultimate six episodes is possible?
Welcome to the Official Death Odds for the ultimate season of Game of Thrones: Typically imitated. Never duplicated. Settle for no imitations.
Right here is the place we break down the numbers and this time, a person has included actual betting strains on each who’s more likely to die first and odds of demise prior to the last whistle, coupled with horribly misguided Ouncesconjecture. That is also the submit the place we encourage dissenting opinion. So, let’s blow it up Cersei…
Disclaimer #1: I remain Unsullied by oath, and this area is a spoiler-free zone. All conjecture is only based mostly on uneducated, show-viewing solely guesstimates, so take them for what they are value. For those who or yours are in possession of insider-trading info on who might or might NOT make it by way of the remaining season (or first episode), please maintain that info categorised.
Disclaimer #2: There have been no scientific research carried out (that I’m conscious of) that measure the outcomes of all past Ouncescontrived Death Odds, but I can promise you that it’s in all probability not good. This is merely for leisure and harmonious argumentative purposes only.
ALSO, and most importantly, the links provided are merely for citation. We at WotW aren’t in cahoots with any company that’s trying earn money off of ill-advised betting, especially as it relates to a TV show. My advice can be, DON’T.
So right here is how we’ll proceed:
Depending on the place you live and how typically you partake in playing actions, understanding odds could be somewhat complicated. So, I’ll simplify it by changing it to a proportion. Such a conversion would seem like this (using AeJon Snow for instance):
Who Will Die Outright
AeJon Snow: Odds Fraction: 1/1 = Odds Decimal: 2 = American figure: +100 = implied chance of demise: 50.zero%.
We’ll get rid of the “odds decimal” and the “American figure” as they have been solely proven as variant measurement of betting odds and usually are not wanted in the conversion process anyway.
For many who stay incognizant because it pertains to betting, we’ll go together with percentages for this necessary (sarcasm), non-peer reviewed research of fictional character fatality chances.
The IPOD is the “implied probability of death” at any level throughout Season 8 which suggests, yeah… your favourite character probably gained’t be dwelling fortunately ever after working at the Westerosi Pig Shit Farm when all is claimed and achieved. Those odds are provided from Betvictor.
The FTP (First to Perish in S8) odds have been gathered up from Betonline. In fact, this is where you supply up your hard-earned cash making an attempt to determine which main or minor named character a gaggle of writers determined can be the first to chew the mud.
Hmmm… marvel if D&D can guess on this.
Anyway, these strains change (typically) as new info becomes out there and fluctuate depending on principle, opinion, clues from interviews, in all probability a leak right here and there, and most importantly the amount of cash being wagered on any specific character. I’m only the messenger of what was out at the time of this publishing. They have in all probability modified in the present day.
So, right here we go. Disagree as you want in the feedback. That’s why I write it.
IPOD (Implied Chance of Death): 1/1, 50.0%
FTP (First to Perish in Season eight): 66/1, 1.5%
You recognize there’s going to be a shitload of bloodshed if the Prince that Was Promised to Ygritte is sitting at a 50/50 shot at dwelling. But GoT has taught us that it don’t matter what your identify really is, or who your mother was, or how many aunts you’ve slept with. Nobody is protected.
The story as of late has been largely devoted to the journeys of both Jon and Dany. Now that these roads have converged, and contemplating the general history of this tragic exploit, it’s a must to consider that we’ll not be subjected to a Disney-esque conclusion; one that might involve Jonaerys skipping into the sundown with their child Wolfasaurus in tow. So, prepare yourselves now.
OuncesConjecture: He gon’ die.
If Jon have been to truly be alive and take the Iron Throne at the finish, I’ve this psychological image of him sitting on it very similar to Conan the Barbarian was at the end of the embattled movie, Conan the Destroyer: alone, depressing, and asking himself what the hell it was all for. Certainly, that’s not where we’re headed (and stop calling me “Shirley.”)
IPOD: 1/4, 80%
FTP: 50/1, 2%
Dany’s chance of demise is relatively high compared to AeJon indicating that the odds makers consider that Jon is a a lot safer guess on making it by means of the conflict alive. Her FTP is the lowest with the exception of Jon and tied with Jaime displaying that the odds of Dany being killed first in S8 are principally non-existent.
OuncesConjecture: Much to the chagrin of the Dany-Haters, she gon’ reside. And so will AeJon II when he’s born. Dany will keep in mind the sacrifices Jon made and can shape a world of peace, studying from her previous errors, and forming a peaceable union among the kingdoms while all of us man-bun lovers can be crying in our coffee Monday morning following the conclusion.
IPOD: 1/40, 97.6%
FTP: 6/1, 14.three%
IPOD: half, 66.7%
FTP: 4/1, 20%
IPOD: No odds
FTP: 9/4, 30.8%
The oddsmakers don’t like the Greyjoy’s possibilities of survival and admittedly neither do I. They don’t necessarily assume that Euron will go first, however they’re virtually constructive he will perish before the season runs out, which is probably right.
Theon’s FTP is getting on up there as compared with the other players on the listing, but his IPOD is just 66.7% which isn’t horrible odds considering the recreation being performed and the place he’s headed.
However tied for the prime of the FTP out of each main/minor left in Westeros is Yara. Making an attempt to pry into the heads of odds makers is an act of futility, however we will assume she is tied for highest because (a) she’s at present in captivity, and (b) she hasn’t been shown in the trailer or any season 8 photographs as of this submit. Still, I ain’t buying it and I don’t know if IPOD is both since she wasn’t even listed.
OuncesConjecture: Euron and Theon: They gon’ die. Yara: She gon’ stay.
Theon has an arc to satisfy which might be going to look something like him sacrificing and vindicating himself for either Yara’s life or one of the Starks after the shit he pulled on them in S2. Euron is a goner however gained’t be first considering he is bringing back the Golds and can in all probability be Cersei’s right-hand man now that Jaime (who doesn’t have a proper hand anyway) is gone. Yara will carry on the Greyjoy identify and lead the Iron Islands into the future, correctly.
IPOD: 1/40, 97.6%
FTP: 20/1, four.eight%
IPOD: 1/10, 90.9%
FTP: 50/1, 2%
IPOD: 1/2, 66.7%
FTP: 40/1, 2.4%
Cersei and Jaime are each sporting an IPOD over 90% which in all probability gained’t surprise anyone reading this. I admittedly didn’t assume Cersei would make it previous Season 7 to be trustworthy, so my conjecture on her is null and void. I’ll just say this… if she continues to be sitting on the rattling throne in seven weeks, then we’ve all been duped. And I wouldn’t put it previous the present runners or GRRM.
Jaime has an arc to finish. In S4, Joffrey factors out that the E-book of Brothers has very little written about Jaime which stands out to me as the most damning evidence that he may have a minimum of one historic feat throughout the season, though it’ll probably value him his life. The Kingslayer can be redeemed, and will probably be tragic, and we’ll cry.
Tyrion is the wild card here. With an IPOD of slightly below 67%, the odds makers give him a a lot better probability at survival than his brother or sister. There was an abundance of hypothesis about Tyrion probably betraying Dany which is believable contemplating that he and Dany didn’t have the greatest Season 7 together. But how would this transpire now that Jaime can be in the North? Hmmm….
OuncesConjecture: Jaime gon’ die, and nevertheless his dying happens goes to push Tyrion over the edge into a betrayal. I feel Tyrion lives, however it is going to be someplace aside from Westeros and lonely by the end of the season. I’d like to see Tyrion reside happily ever after, so I hope I’m improper.
Oh, and Cersei? I abstain.
IPOD: 11/8, 42.1%
FTP: 28/1, 3.4%
IPOD: 5/2, 28.6%
FTP: 33/1, 2.9%
IPOD: 2/1, 33.3%
FTP: 66/1, 1.5%
Considering how low the IPOD’s are on the remaining Stark kiddos, the odds makers consider there’s a actual shot that each one three will someway survive the Nice Warfare.
I respectfully disagree. This is not Full House Stark. That is Thunderdome.
OuncesConjecture: Three Starks enter. Two Starks depart. One of them is going to die. The query is… which one.
Your guess might be higher than mine but when I needed to put cash on it (which I gained’t), it might be Arya.
Sansa’s arc has primarily been a coming-of-age story set in a horrific surroundings through which she has been pressured to study robust classes via traumatic experiences. And I don’t assume we are completed seeing her progression into the sort of leader she is going to develop into. If I’m right about AeJon and Arya, coupled with what I’m about to theorize about Bran, will probably be as much as Sansa to continue the Stark legacy which I keep can be an excellent thing. Don’t misread although… Sansa has never been one of my favourite characters, but I don’t hate her. When you return and watch her evolution by means of the seasons with recent eyes and a clear thoughts, you will better perceive why she is who she is, why she made the mistakes she made, and will understand that her character continues to be not a completed product. They’ll end it. She is going to reside.
Bran v.3ER is a research by himself. We might refill this complete website with theories on what the hell is actually going on with him. I’m not going to dive in to what I feel it is right here (no, he isn’t the Night time King), but I do assume he has a objective beyond the present’s conclusion and can take his rightful place wrapped in some roots underneath a tree when all is claimed and achieved.
By the method, both betting providers have Bran as the odds-on favourite to be on the Iron Throne when the present concludes. Wanna wager on that? 4/5, 55.6%; three/2, 40%
That leaves us with Arya who I don’t ever envision settling down and shopping for a ranch after the battle is over. That’s… not her. Arya will both get on a ship to travel the world and ultimately head back to Braavos or will die on a suicide mission to kill somebody essential sporting another person’s face. Let’s hope for the former.
IPOD: 11/4, 26.7%
FTP: 33/1, 2.9%
IPOD: 11/four, 26.7%
FTP: No odds
In case you are a lover and never a fighter and in search of the couple who has the greatest probability to make it out of the White Walker Apocalypse alive, then look no further. Sam and Gilly both sit at over 73% probability of survival which is the greatest amongst characters included in the IPOD odds. If Gilly have been to perish, it might probably be a tragic case of collateral injury as a result of struggle. Sam may be pressured to battle simply resulting from necessity, but he ain’t dying.
OuncesConjecture: They gon’ reside. Sam inherits the Citadel and lives in the library. In any case, this entire story is simply Sam reading (or writing) a ebook, right?
IPOD: no odds
FTP: 16/1, 5.9%
IPOD: four/9, 69.2%
FTP: No Odds
IPOD: 1/5, 83.3%
FTP: 22/1, 4.3%
For those of us weirdos hoping for a Davos/Pink Velvet spinoff (I feel we came up with the working title, Davos and Mel: Dwelling in Hell), the odds usually are not horribly towards it. Nevertheless, we do know that a sequel isn’t reportedly in the works.
I have no purpose to suspect that Davos will die aside from the reality that he is in Winterfell and everyone there’s more likely to die. However he has found a solution to by some means persevere this lengthy. I like his possibilities, and I feel IPOD does as properly.
Velvet and Varys are two totally different stories that converged at Dragonstone. Varys had his run-ins with different Velvets in Essos, and Mel tells him, “Oh, I will return dear Spider. One last time. I have to die in this strange country, just like you.” So, now she is back, for one final time, assumingly to satisfy…. something.
OuncesConjecture: Davos gon’ reside. Purple Velvet gon’ die.
For those who actually need a breakdown on Varys, I highly advocate this from @patman23. His conjecture is rather more educated and well-informed.
However in the event you insist on the “Hot Take” of Oz, then have at it.
As I’ve advised you earlier than, Varys is a rattling Warlock… he’s just abstained from the blue popsicles for some time. I have very particular explanation why I consider this, none of which in all probability make a lot sense. Nevertheless it’s one of those early-season offers that never actually added as much as much: Pyat Pree was a freaky, blue kool-aid consuming dude in Qarth that would perform magic but was ultimately toasted as a result of he stole some dragons, which apparently make Warlocks more highly effective. Varys has all the time had an affinity for the Targs. I’m wondering why. Then, there was the little blue ring pop-sucking woman who tried to murder Dany with a gangrene-infected scorpion at the beginning of S3 that by no means amounted to something aside from the return of Selmy. It’s a must to consider the Warlocks have been included for some cause, and Varys is your purpose.
IPOD: 4/11, 73.three%
FTP: 12/1, 7.7%
IPOD: No odds
FTP: 7/1, 12.5%
The Brothers Clegane. The Mountain (Dew) was not included in the IPOD which may point out that each one sources anticipate his demise to be inevitable alongside Cersei. The query can be, how does it happen?
In the event you take the FTP on each, BV clearly signifies they consider the Mountain will go before the Hound which suggests they undertaking that the Hound will score extra touchdowns than the Mountain during Cleganebowl. This aspect guess provided by BV reinforces it:
First to perish between the two:
Mountain 2/5, 71.4%
Hound 17/10, 37%
OuncesConjecture: They both gon’ die. The Hound will defeat The Mountain however should confront his worry of hearth to do it. Later in the season, the Hound will perish protecting somebody. My guess can be Sansa.
IPOD: 1/7, 87.5%
FTP: No odds
IPOD: No odds
FTP: 9/four, 30.8%
After the doubters all found out that Beric and Tormund didn’t, actually, slide down the broken wall into sure demise (huh?)at the end of S7, there was aid. But the finish is coming, no less than for one and as dangerous as I hate to say it, it’s going to be flaming lightsaber man.
OuncesConjecture: Tormund gon’ reside. Beric gon’ die. They made some extent to reiterate that Beric’s (virtually) nine lives have been accomplished when Thoros died from frozen bear disease. His subsequent time will probably be his last. I hope I’m mistaken on this one too. Dormer has all the time been one of my favorites.
Tormund survives, however not to make big infants with Brienne. After Jaime dies, he realizes that she liked one other and resolves to opening a child seal plantation serving to reestablish trade and prosperity in the North following the invasion.
IPOD: 1/eight, 88.9%
FTP: 18/1, 5.three%
IPOD: 2/1, 33.three%
FTP: 14/1, 6.7%
I’m with IPOD on this one in that Gendry is an effective guess to survive if solely to assist maintain the Baratheon bloodline intact. Perhaps whoever ends up on the throne naturalizes him? Perhaps they don’t. Regardless, Gendry will comply with his badass father’s footsteps smashing many together with his hammer this season. And in the sequel in 2034, we’ll see fats Gendry say, “bring the breastplate stretcher!!!!”
And then there’s “The Man.” Ser Zone appears to be perpetually trapped in “friend” status because of Drogo, then Daario, the temporary bizarre factor with Hizdahr, and now Manbun Targaryen. However that’s not likely the point right here. And this one might break my heart the worst…
OuncesConjecture: Gendry gon’ reside. Jorah gon’ die. However like many others, he will redeem himself to Home Mormont and Lyanna and might be remembered favorably in the annals of Westerosi History (and the Pal Zone Hall of Fame).
IPOD: 1/1, 50%
FTP: 14/1, 6.7%
IPOD: 1/6, 85.7%
FTP: No odds
The women love Pod, and we nonetheless don’t precisely know why. If the Gods (and the writers) have any integrity left, they may permit Pod to reside past the warfare and to say the title of “Best Lover in Westeros.” Just kidding, however not likely solely because I’d wish to see the Pod survive. IPOD doesn’t like his possibilities.
Logically speaking, you may assume that Brienne’s possibilities of dying must be larger than Pod’s. IPOD says, “not so fast.” Brienne is a talented warrior and Pod has a hard time rabbit-skinning, so there’s that. Nevertheless, you’d assume that Brienne shall be put in harm’s approach excess of Pod all through the last season. Plus, she may be destined to save lots of one of the Stark youngsters, fulfilling her oath while placing herself at larger danger. In fact, if Winterfell goes down like the Hindenburg, it gained’t matter a method or the different.
OuncesConjecture: The both gon’ reside. But again, no colossal Tormund/Brienne babies. Tormund will check the waters a couple of extra occasions. Brienne will kick his ass.
IPOD: half, 66.7%
FTP: 14/1, 6.7%
When you didn’t notice, Jaime left KL after his run-in with the Mad Queen ALONE. Ser Bronn was not with him. Perhaps this was executed purposefully as a symbolic moment for Jaime and Bronn simply needed to run and gather up his toothbrush and a few personal gadgets. However my concern is that Cersei will get to him before he leaves.
I don’t essentially assume she would kill him, although it might be merited considering their historical past. Quite, I feel she may rent him. Bronn has made it clear that he is a sellsword and that he enjoys money, even admitting to Tyrion that he would kill a child in its mother’s arms if the worth was proper. Now that Jaime is gone, it stands to purpose that Bronn may be on the lookout for different alternatives moderately than going to struggle a seemingly unwinnable battle. If that occurs, and Bronn ends up near our heroes later, then beware.
OuncesConjecture: He gon’ die. Bronn will try to assassinate both Dany or Jon or both and somebody will kill him in the process. Perhaps this is Jorah’s second.
IPOD: 4/11, 73.three%
FTP: No odds
Considering the trailer and the proven fact that he appears to be on the entrance line of the shit that goes down at Winterfell, these odds will not be close to as high as I anticipated. I’d put him at about 90.
OuncesConjecture: He gon’ die. Sorry wormless Worm fans.
Night time King
IPOD: No odds
FTP: 20/1, 4.8%
Who the hell is aware of. The assumption is that if NK lives, that signifies that the dwelling are all lifeless and ol’ blue eyes is simply sitting on the throne gazing the lifeless military for eternity. Exhilarating, sure? Then again, perhaps that’s why HBO isn’t working on a sequel.
But perhaps it’s not that straightforward. Perhaps the Night time King has a motive we are unaware of and might be parleyed with. That is the place Bran’s journey doubtless comes to its fruition.
OuncesConjecture: I don’t have a rattling clue. But there’s extra to it than “Kill the Night King, win the war.” Perhaps it does come right down to pure simplicity. However will probably be a posh path to get there.
No action listed on the following:
Lyanna Mormont: She gon’ reside.
Missandei: She gon’ stay too.
Scorching Pie: He informed Arya that he’s a survivor. Never doubt the Pie.
Robin Arryn: If he exhibits up, he lives.
Qyburn: He lifeless.
Eddison: He lifeless.
Meera Reed: Really hope we simply get to see her once more.
Jaqen: I didn’t know if he was lifeless or alive when he appeared on the present anyway.
Daario: To be trustworthy, I’d be superb if we by no means see him again.
Edmure: If Edmure have been to reemerge, it will be just to kill him off. GoT has a history. So, he lifeless too.
Who did I miss?
And what did I get incorrect? Higher yet, the place are the odds makers mistaken? Voice your dismay under! I’m more all in favour of hearing your thoughts anyway.
A man will probably be back soon for in-season Looking Ahead, the in-season weekly schedule, Unsullied recaps and different random frolicsomeness.
Take a deep breath and put together now, kiddos. The end is starting, as is the HBO GoT marathon. Catch me on the twitster, and should there all the time be peace in your realm. -Oz